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Quantum computing is quickly becoming one of the most exciting technologies being explored today. Unlike traditional computers, which use bits that are either 0 or 1, quantum computers use qubits that can exist in multiple states at once. This allows them to solve problems much faster than current supercomputers.
Recent breakthroughs, like Google’s success with its Willow quantum chip, show that progress is being made. As the technology develops, quantum computing has the potential to transform industries and tackle problems once thought impossible to solve.
While quantum computing platforms have made significant strides, they still fall short of demonstrating a quantum advantage, according to Forrester’s recently released State of Quantum Computing 2024 report.
Despite improvements in coherence time, qubit count, and gate fidelity, quantum computing remains largely experimental, with broad-scale applications likely still many years away. The report highlights advancements in fields such as optimization, quantum simulation, and quantum machine learning, which hold promise for industries like finance and pharmaceuticals. However, issues like scalability and high error rates are expected to remain ongoing challenges.
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Optimization has emerged as a key focus in the evolution of quantum computing, especially for industries like finance and logistics. The report highlights growing competition in this area, with Q-CTRL leveraging IBM’s gate-based quantum systems to challenge the dominance of D-Wave’s quantum annealing solutions.
Forrester expects stiff competition between D-Wave and Q-CTRL in the near future. “Gate-based algorithms offer the potential for greater solution speedups as qubit counts and quality increase,” states Forrester in its report. “This makes Q-CTRL’s claim an interesting challenge to D-Wave’s self-proclaimed lead in optimization. We say, “game on” in this important problem domain.”
The report emphasizes the growing role of quantum technology in both hybrid computing and security. By combining the strengths of quantum and classical systems, companies like IBM Quantum and Google Cirq are pioneering new methods for solving highly complex problems.
The expansion of Quantum-as-a-Service (QaaS) is accelerating breakthroughs, with researchers developing quantum neural networks, support vector machines, and algorithms for complex tasks like image and natural language processing.
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Although the number of quantum computing deals hit a record in 2023, Forrester expects the “quantum investment winter” to set in. Investor attention has been diverted to the meteoric rise of GenAI. This slowdown will likely lead to a delay in the mainstream adoption of quantum computing. It also means a delay of Y2Q: the day when quantum computers break state-of-the-art asymmetric cryptography.
Forrester recommends that companies should proactively prepare to integrate and leverage quantum technology by enhancing their readiness in high-performance computing and security.
Brian Hopkins, VP of Emerging Technology at Forrester shared with BigDataWire that “Quantum computing progress may seem gradual, but breakthroughs can occur unexpectedly, accelerating development. Companies that wait for general quantum advantage might miss out as competitors advance. It’s crucial to identify and empower scientists, engineers, and analysts working in quantum-related areas.”
Hopkins further added, “As quantum technology evolves, vendors are increasingly offering programs to help organizations adopt quantum solutions. It’s advisable to explore these opportunities proactively to stay competitive.”
Despite the downturn in investment as predicted by Forrester, quantum computing has been generating quite a buzz since last year. This is evident in the soaring quantum computing stock prices. However, the year-long rally has come to an abrupt stop since Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA and currently one of the most influential tech leaders put forth a pessimistic view of the quantum computing timeline and short-term prospects.
Huang suggested that practical quantum computing may still be 15 to 30 years away. His comments reignited skepticism about the technology’s readiness and this resulted in a significant decline in stocks for D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, IonQ, and other quantum computing companies and startups.
Alan Baratz, CEO of DNSD-Wave Quantum, strongly disagrees with Huang, calling his comments “dead wrong”.
“The reason he’s wrong is that we at D-Wave are commercial today,” Baratz told CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa on “The Exchange.” He went on to highlight that companies such as Mastercard and Japan’s NTT Docomo are currently using the company’s quantum computers in production to enhance their business operations.
“Not 30 years from now, not 20 years from now, not 15 years from now,” Baratz said. “But right now. today.”
Huang’s framing of quantum as a distant horizon has some merit, and it aligns with Forrester’s findings. However, this perception may be overlooking some of the real-world applications and incremental advancements made by quantum computing over the years. Huang’s comments could also undercut the momentum and investments needed to drive Quantum’s ongoing development and adoption.
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