- Russian interest rates on deposits and loans have risen faster than its central bank’s key rate.
- A central bank official says lending may have slowed too quickly in its battle to lower inflation.
- Russia’s central bank has kept its interest rate at 21% to avoid excessive cooling in its economy.
Russia’s central bank has been hiking rates consistently in the second half of this year in an attempt to cool high inflation — but they may be running ahead of the curve.
Bank lending has slowed, but there is a risk that it is “faster than necessary” in the fight to bring down inflation to Russia’s target rate, a central bank official told the Interfax on Tuesday.
Andrey Gangan, the director of the Central Bank of Russia’s Monetary Policy Department, told the news agency that bank interest rates on deposits and loans are rising faster than the central bank’s benchmark rate, slowing lending activity.
The development prompted the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate at 21% on Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected Russia’s central bank to hike its key rate to 23%.
“Throughout December, we received increasing confirmation of tighter monetary conditions, culminating in Friday’s decision,” Gangan told Interfax.
Corporate bank lending grew 0.8% in November, down from 2.3% in October, per Interfax citing official data.
Lenders are planning to expand their loan portfolios at a lower level next year, said Gangan.
Putin called for a ‘balanced’ decision on interest rates
Gangan’s comments followed speculation that Russia’s central bank has been under pressure from President Vladimir Putin and the business community to hold back on rate hikes.
Putin had called for a “balanced” decision about the interest rate a day before the central bank’s interest-rate decision.
Russia’s top central banker, Elvira Nabiullina, said at a press conference following Friday’s interest rate announcement that she was worried about “excessive cooling” in the country’s overheated economy.
Despite the slowdown in bank lending that prompted Russia’s central bank to keep rates steady, inflation remains high, reflecting challenges in the country’s sanctions-hit economy.
Russia’s inflation rate hovered around 8% in the year to November, compared to the target rate of about 4%, according to government figures.
Gangan told Interfax that full-year inflation is expected to be around 9.6% to 9.8%. Price raises are expected to peak in April 2025 before falling.
“The current price growth we are observing is the result of factors that have accumulated over most of this year,” he said.
However, the central bank still needs to keep rates steady this time so that the slowdown in bank lending — which leads to economic cooling — would not be “faster than necessary for bringing inflation back to the target,” Gangan said.
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