Wildfire Risk Prediction: A Review

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Abstract:Wildfires have significant impacts on global vegetation, wildlife, and humans. They destroy plant communities and wildlife habitats and contribute to increased emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, methane, and other pollutants. The prediction of wildfires relies on various independent variables combined with regression or machine learning methods. In this technical review, we describe the options for independent variables, data processing techniques, models, independent variables collinearity and importance estimation methods, and model performance evaluation metrics. First, we divide the independent variables into 4 aspects, including climate and meteorology conditions, socio-economical factors, terrain and hydrological features, and wildfire historical records. Second, preprocessing methods are described for different magnitudes, different spatial-temporal resolutions, and different formats of data. Third, the collinearity and importance evaluation methods of independent variables are also considered. Fourth, we discuss the application of statistical models, traditional machine learning models, and deep learning models in wildfire risk prediction. In this subsection, compared with other reviews, this manuscript particularly discusses the evaluation metrics and recent advancements in deep learning methods. Lastly, addressing the limitations of current research, this paper emphasizes the need for more effective deep learning time series forecasting algorithms, the utilization of three-dimensional data including ground and trunk fuel, extraction of more accurate historical fire point data, and improved model evaluation metrics.