As Ukraine pushes further into Russian territory this week, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Kyiv was leaning on one key factor of its surprise attack on Kursk: the element of surprise itself.
The New York Times’ report on the prelude to the bold, cross-border attack gives a glimpse at Ukraine’s emphasis on secrecy this time.
According to The Times, a research institute affiliated with Ukraine’s military had studied successful campaigns in modern history and found that the winning side often said nothing publicly before their attacks.
That doctrine seems to have cascaded to troops on the field.
A Ukrainian deputy brigade commander, identified by The Times as Lt. Col. Artem, told the outlet that most senior officers were only given three days’ notice that they were going to invade.
Soldiers in non-leadership positions were only told one day before, the outlet added.
The Times also reported that Ukraine tried to mask its concentration of forces along the border by spreading them out in homes littered across villages and by pretending to conduct training exercises.
Most notably, Ukraine’s leaders largely kept mum about the offensive even days after reports emerged that Kyiv’s troops were pushing miles deep into Kursk.
Russia initially reported that Ukraine had sent in about 40 armored vehicles and 1,000 troops, though reports from the ground indicate that the invading force is far larger.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has released only tidbits of information about its operations in Kursk, even on its gains. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted to the attack on Saturday, five days after the incursion.
Ukraine’s muted approach comes as observers struggle to ascertain just how far Kyiv has pushed into Kursk, and what its strategic objectives for the attack may be.
A teaser video and 2023’s failed attack
The silence from Kyiv contrasts the lead-up to its failed counteroffensive last summer, when Ukrainian forces slammed into Russian defenses in the south but were only able to regain about 200 square miles of territory.
Ukraine had, back then, boldly stated its primary objective: To cut off Russia’s eastern front from its supply lines via Crimea.
Before the attack, it even published a teaser video for its counteroffensive, telling people — in perhaps a moment of irony — that it was maintaining secrecy for its attack.
It didn’t say when it was going to attack, but the intention to assault the Russian lines was telegraphed even as early as the middle of 2022. Kyiv took so long to execute that there was even suspicion that the counteroffensive was just a ruse.
Zelenskyy later said the Russians likely knew of Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive plans beforehand.
“The Russians knew where we were going to attack,” he told reporters separately in April. “How did they know? How did they get this information? I can’t tell you that. History will tell.”
The Times’ latest report described how Ukraine’s researchers had started studying past campaigns after the failures of 2023.
This time, Ukraine appears to have kept the offensive under wraps to the extent that it had to rush to evacuate its own border villages as Russia retaliated with strikes.
In Kursk, Russian forces look like they’ve been caught off guard. Ukraine is reported to have broken through defensive lines along several positions, saying on Monday that it’s seized 28 villages.
During its February 2022 invasion, the Kremlin was also believed to have kept many of its troops in the dark. Some tank drivers were reported to have not even known where they were headed as their columns rolled past the border.
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