A new Bureau of Economic Analysis report said the advance estimate for US GDP growth was 2.8% at an annualized rate.
That’s way more than the 2.0% forecast noted on Investing.com and the 1.4% growth in the first quarter.
Other data shows a US economy cooling into a “soft landing” with tamer inflation and a slower job market. Inflation and wage growth have slowed. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has dropped but continues to be above 6%. The unemployment rate is up from its historic low, layoffs and discharges generally remain low, and the leisure and hospitality sector is seeing weak monthly job growth. Zandi also noted that the number of jobs created a month is “not enough to absorb everyone entering the job market.”
“Much of this economic slowdown is by design,” Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, said in written commentary before the GDP data was published. “The intent of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hikes in the federal funds rate in 2022 and the first half of 2023, and the high funds rate that has prevailed since—the Fed’s higher for longer strategy—has been to weigh on aggregate demand, cool off the hot job market, and allow wage and price pressures to ease.”
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet at the end of July, and a rate cut is not anticipated to be announced. Economists who recently talked to Business Insider explained why they, however, believe it’s time for rate cuts.
“Right now, the Federal Reserve with keeping interest rates high is putting pressure on the economy, is making it harder for consumers to buy,” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed economist, told BI. “They have to take out credit. It’s making it harder for businesses to invest.”
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
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