Kamala Harris had friends in high-tech places, but it wasn’t nearly enough to secure the presidency.
Silicon Valley’s progressive leaders, like Reid Hoffman, Laurene Powell, and Vinod Khosla, raised millions for the Harris campaign, hoping for a Democrat in the White House for the next term.
In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s clear win, some of tech’s denizens stewed on what will happen next for their industry. Even in their sadness following Wednesday’s results, traces of cautious optimism started to appear.
In conversations with over a dozen VCs and founders, there was a sense that the regulatory climate might soften, potentially easing antitrust scrutiny and allowing a wave of mergers and acquisitions to proceed unfettered. The election result, coupled with the stock market’s exuberant response, could light up the exit market like the Fourth of July, signaling private companies to finally go public.
While many Silicon Valley VCs and founders aren’t huge Trump fans, their industry thrives when startups are getting acquired or going public quickly. The Biden administration clamped down heavily on tech M&A, so Trump’s win could be a financial boon for the sector. There’s also hope and early signs of VC fund investors being more open to putting fresh money into the asset class.
The outcome could be good for startups who have been sitting on the sidelines for the past few years hoping to go public (and their investors), said Jordan Nof, a managing partner of Tusk Venture Partners, an early-stage investor.
Stephen Hays, the founder and managing partner of What if Ventures, said money is already moving again. He received two emails from investors on Wednesday morning about committing more capital to deals his syndicate can access. Both said they had waited for the election to pass to start writing bigger checks.
Trump’s return to the White House will ripple through the technology sector in unpredictable and potentially transformative ways, though tech policy was largely an afterthought this election cycle. In his campaign, Trump played on people’s anxieties about the economy to win over swing voters, while Harris cast herself as the candidate who would reach across the aisle on housing and immigration.
In the short term, the election outcome is good for business, said a Bay Area-based investor. Trump is allied with some well-known tech people like Elon Musk, there’s likely to be more permissive M&A, and the price of bitcoin is at record highs. But there is longer-term uncertainty and questions remaining about whether Trump will shake the foundations of the US’s economy and society, he added.
Big Tech returns to the table
As president, Trump could roll back some of the antitrust policies that his opponent would have continued. The Biden administration was a much tougher antitrust enforcer, putting many technology mergers and acquisitions on hold. That trickled down to little tech in the form of fewer deals closed.
Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan’s status could be in jeopardy once Trump takes over in January. She has been one of the main drivers of tougher antitrust enforcement in tech deals. On Wednesday, Lulu Cheng Meservey, the communications whisperer to tech firms like Y Combinator, tweeted a photo of Khan with LinkedIn’s #OpenToWork badge.
“I believe we’ll see the markets open back up for M&A, a more business-first approach,” said Brandon Brooks, a partner at the tech investment firm Overlooked Ventures. He added that having a former venture capitalist in the White House — Trump’s heir apparent, JD Vance — could bring “a more private market focus” to the presidency.
Investors such as SignalFire founder Chris Farmer and Mason Angel of Industrious Ventures said a more relaxed approach to antitrust enforcement could unlock billion-dollar exits for a limited set of founders and venture capitalists who have a vested interest in acquisitions picking back up. That’s how they return profits to investors.
Louis Lehlot, a partner at Foley & Lardner, expects a respite from the antitrust crackdown to “enable Big Tech buyers to return the table.” He said, “They have been frozen out for nearly four years, essentially warned not to even try to acquire new companies, and in some cases, to prepare for their looming defenestration.”
The question of how a second Trump term affects the stock market also has far-reaching consequences for tech. Fewer dollars are flowing into the venture capital funds that keep tech firms flush with cash. Limited partners such as pensions and endowments that fund venture firms have been choosier over months of higher interest rates and a shortage of private company exits to the public market.
Markets rallied on Wednesday as Trump’s victory ended one of the most contentious presidential elections in modern history. It’s unclear how long the “Trump trade” boom will last and whether conditions for venture firms seeking investment will improve anytime soon.
“I think the concerns around tariffs and the rising cost of capital make our asset class less attractive if people can earn better rates of return elsewhere,” said Michael Greeley, a general partner at Flare Capital Partners.
Crypto wins, uncertainty for climate
This election marked the first with artificial intelligence in play, and as president, Trump will have to contend with how to regulate it. Though he hasn’t released a detailed policy agenda, analysts expect Trump will ease up-regulation. His campaign pledged to repeal a Biden-era executive order that set guardrails on the technology and that some conservatives in tech argued went too far.
Trump is also seen as bullish for crypto.
The blockchain sector, including many VCs who invest in the sector, poured $100 million into elections this year. Trump positioned himself as the pro-crypto candidate, promising to make the US “the crypto capital of the world,” and pledging he would fire Biden-appointed SEC chairman Gary Gensler, who has cracked down on the crypto regulation. Trump has also publicly said he would “keep all the bitcoin the US government currently holds or acquires into the future.” Bitcoin surged to a record high of $75,000 after Trump’s victory was confirmed.
Investors in climate tech were more apprehensive about what a second Trump term means for clean energy. Trump’s on-again, off-again support for nuclear energy could result in new legislation to “expand alternative energy sources, particularly by accelerating the deployment of advanced nuclear micro-reactors,” said Brian Garrett, managing director at Crosscut Ventures.
Meta, Google, Microsoft and Amazon are all exploring using nuclear energy to power their data centers.
Garrett shared tech investor Jenny Fielding’s concerns that the new administration could repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, a bill that fueled investment in the clean-tech sector by green-lighting $369 billion in subsidies to public and private actors. He said Trump could retract the unspent funds crucial to upgrading energy infrastructure in the country.
“While regulations were always more progressive in places like Europe, if the climate [regulation] under Biden and the Inflation Reduction Act are rolled back, this could be a significant setback for climate tech companies operating (hoping to sell) in the US,” said Fielding, a managing partner at Everywhere Ventures, which invests globally.
In other pockets of the Valley, investors rolled up their sleeves for a new day of dealmaking. “People are keeping to themselves and just getting on with their business,” said Conrad Burke, a managing partner of MetaVC Partners.
Leslie Feinzaig, a venture capitalist who became one of tech’s bundlers for Harris, sent an email to members of the VCs for Kamala group on Wednesday morning. “It hurts, of course, but it’s a hurt we are familiar with,” she wrote. “I’ve been here enough times that I know what I’m supposed to do: Get back up, learn the lesson, and get back to work.”
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